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Michael Raynor discusses the complexities of strategy in uncertain environments, particularly in the context of a flawed Canadian study recommending hydrogen buses alongside battery-electric ones. He highlights significant discrepancies in cost projections and the longevity of fuel cells versus batteries, suggesting that the assumptions made in the study could lead to a $100 million miscalculation favoring battery electric buses. Raynor emphasizes the importance of realistic data and the need for better scenario modeling in transit planning.
Winnipeg's reliance on New Flyer, North America's largest bus manufacturer, is jeopardizing the company's future as it shifts focus to hydrogen fuel cell buses, which are more expensive and less reliable than battery-electric alternatives. This strategic misstep, compounded by conflicts of interest within the Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium, is leading to significant financial and operational challenges for both New Flyer and Winnipeg's transit system. As a result, the city risks becoming a captive market for a failing technology, potentially costing taxpayers billions.
CUTRIC's recent study on hydrogen buses has raised concerns over its reliability and potential conflicts of interest, as it appears to favor hydrogen solutions despite their high costs and operational inefficiencies. The study, funded by ZETF, may mislead transit agencies like Translink into adopting costly hydrogen options, influenced by board members with vested interests in hydrogen technology. A governance review is recommended to ensure transparency and to critically assess the viability of hydrogen bus fleets based on global experiences.
New Flyer faces scrutiny for its hydrogen bus strategy, which may jeopardize its market share due to inferior battery-electric offerings. The Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium (CUTRIC) is criticized for conflicts of interest, particularly with fossil fuel companies on its board, raising concerns about its commitment to decarbonization. The Zero Emissions Transit Fund"s definition of zero emissions is also questioned, as it may favor gray hydrogen over more sustainable options.
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17:55 21.11.2024
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